A Betting Riddle – Barça and Bayern Münich:
Professional gamblers thrive in finding patterns and certainty where others can only see chaos. But sometimes, uncertainty is so clear, that some games are avoided completely.
I have seen first hand in some of the biggest syndicates in the world, how motivation levels are predicted carefully.
What a shame to see a game between giant clubs like Barcelona and FC Bayern as a melancholic game. Bayern doesn’t need the points of this match to qualify for the Round of 16, and Barcelona will most likely start the game sure that they cannot qualify for the eighth finals.
Inter Milan would need to lose against Viktoria Plzen, and the Czech side has lost all four games so far.
If that happens, not only Inter Milan would have crushed any remaining hope of Barça, but they would have sealed Barça’s fate: Barça would qualify for the Europa League knockout phase and the game against FC Bayern would be almost useless.
Would Barça be that focused to avoid a ridiculous result against Bayern like the infamous 8-2? Will Bayern fight that hard to be the first of the group? The truth is this game is almost useless. And this level of potential motivation is a huge red flag for professionals.
Barça – FC Bayern: Any Betting Value at all?
In my opinion, keeping up with the big teams is always useful. So even if we can’t see any value in the pre-match scenario, we can still follow the game live.
By watching the game it’s easy to spot teams dominating a game, and if the performances change suddenly, it’s always possible to cash out and leave the bet with minimum harm, even in a very unpredictable game like this.
So what would be my prediction for this game? No one wants to lose the game, but no one seems to have reasons to win it that badly.
The expected line-ups don’t indicate Bayern rotating the squad, which is a complicated factor to predict the betting performance of the Germans. In games like this, sometimes young names perform well like Rodrygo and Camavinga just did yesterday when Madrid visited RB Leipzig with their qualification almost guaranteed before the kickoff.
I believe that even after a big victory against Athletic Bilbao last weekend, Barça is living a very fragile moment, especially when the fans of Madrid were joyfully singing stuff like ‘keep Xavi in command’ and ‘good luck in the Europa League’ in the last derby.
So to be honest, I find it hard to see Barcelona handicapped here. Even if they are playing at their domains. I believe this is a hard task for the odds compilers, and if I was trading at a syndicate I’d be very cautious and avoid big bets before the kick-off time.
I see that Barcelona could potentially melt down once again against Bayern as the Germans are living a much better moment than the hosts.